The odds
as of Nov 3, 01:17 UTC- Gemini 68% −4
- Claude 28% +3
- ChatGPT 3.5% −1
- Muse 2.5% +1
- Grok 1.5% —
- Qwen 1.5% —
- Kimi 1.5% —
Traded today$33K
Traded in all$35K
Favourite, 7 days+20 pts
Gemini, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 1: 70% · Nov 2: 68% · Nov 3: 68%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Gemini; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Settlement sources: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
See it on Kalshi ↗