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Mississippi Senate winner? Cindy Hyde-Smith 4% ▼−89Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Mississippi 94% ▲+89Which party will win white voters in the midterms? Republicans 8.9% ▼−86Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 7.5 91% ▲+80How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after th… 56 89% ▲+79Closest Governor race in 2026? Kansas 96% ▲+78How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after … Below 45 88% ▲+77Will Abdul El-Sayed outperform the polls? Yes 94% ▲+73Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House 80% ▲+672026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victor… Democrats, 14 to 16% 16% ▼−63Trail Blazers vs. Suns Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 10.5 91% ▲+63Iowa: Sand's margin vs. Turek's margin? Sand by 6-9 90% ▲+60North Carolina State Senate winner? Democratic party 3.5% ▼−58Sarksian vs Zhang Boxiong Zhang 77% ▲+52
KalshiCloses November 3, 2027

Nevada's 2nd District margin of victory

Flippo, 7+ pts leads at <1% (a very long shot) on Kalshi, as of Nov 5, 05:17 UTC. It's down 28 points in the last 24 hours.

Flippo, 7+ pts <1% ▼ 28 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 5, 05:17 UTC
  • Flippo, 7+ pts <1% −28
  • Flippo, 10+ pts <1% −11
  • Flippo, 1+ pts <1% −28
  • Flippo, 4+ pts <1% −36
  • Flippo, 13+ pts <1% —
  • Flippo, 16+ pts <1% −4.6
  • Flippo, 19+ pts <1% −5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$54K
Traded in all$59K
Favourite, 7 days−32 pts

Flippo, 7+ pts, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 28Nov 51%

Oct 28: 18% · Oct 29: 17% · Oct 30: 24% · Oct 31: 28% · Nov 2: 25% · Nov 3: 22% · Nov 4: <1% · Nov 5: <1%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Flippo, 7+ pts; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Nevada's 2nd District by 7 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources: Nevada Secretary of State

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