Moving
Mississippi Senate winner? Cindy Hyde-Smith 4% ▼−89Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Mississippi 94% ▲+89Which party will win white voters in the midterms? Republicans 8.9% ▼−86Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 7.5 91% ▲+80How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after th… 56 89% ▲+79Closest Governor race in 2026? Kansas 96% ▲+78How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after … Below 45 88% ▲+77Will Abdul El-Sayed outperform the polls? Yes 94% ▲+73Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House 80% ▲+672026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victor… Democrats, 14 to 16% 16% ▼−63Trail Blazers vs. Suns Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 10.5 91% ▲+63Iowa: Sand's margin vs. Turek's margin? Sand by 6-9 90% ▲+60North Carolina State Senate winner? Democratic party 3.5% ▼−58Sarksian vs Zhang Boxiong Zhang 77% ▲+52
KalshiCloses November 3, 2027

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)

Karen Bass, ≥2% leads at 1% (a very long shot) on Kalshi, as of Nov 5, 05:17 UTC. It's down 4 points in the last 24 hours.

Karen Bass, ≥2% 1% ▼ 4 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 5, 05:17 UTC
  • Karen Bass, ≥2% 1% −4
  • Karen Bass, ≥4% 1% −6
  • Karen Bass, ≥6% 1% —
  • Karen Bass, ≥8% 1% —
  • Karen Bass, ≥10% 1% —
  • Karen Bass, ≥12% 1% −8

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$36K
Traded in all$55K
Favourite, 7 days−48 pts

Karen Bass, ≥2%, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 28Nov 52%

Oct 29: 49% · Oct 30: 49% · Oct 31: 52% · Nov 1: 53% · Nov 2: 53% · Nov 3: 61% · Nov 4: 1.5% · Nov 5: 1.5%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Karen Bass, ≥2%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 2% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.

Settlement sources: Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk

See it on Kalshi ↗

Politics & elections

More markets like this

All →