The odds
as of Nov 5, 05:17 UTC- Karen Bass, ≥2% 1% −4
- Karen Bass, ≥4% 1% −6
- Karen Bass, ≥6% 1% —
- Karen Bass, ≥8% 1% —
- Karen Bass, ≥10% 1% —
- Karen Bass, ≥12% 1% −8
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$36K
Traded in all$55K
Favourite, 7 days−48 pts
Karen Bass, ≥2%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 29: 49% · Oct 30: 49% · Oct 31: 52% · Nov 1: 53% · Nov 2: 53% · Nov 3: 61% · Nov 4: 1.5% · Nov 5: 1.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Karen Bass, ≥2%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 2% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Settlement sources: Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk
See it on Kalshi ↗