The odds
as of Nov 6, 17:15 UTC- At least 10 95% +5.5
- At least 25 89% +4
- At least 50 79% −1
- At least 75 69% +29
- At least 100 62% −7
- At least 125 59% −5
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$10K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+14 pts
At least 10, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 2: 81% · Nov 3: 83% · Nov 4: 89% · Nov 5: 95% · Nov 6: 95%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 10; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate is at least 10 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Each person confirmed by the Senate to a civilian position counts once, including judges, ambassadors and Cabinet-level positions, whether confirmed by roll call vote, voice vote, unanimous consent or en bloc resolution. The following do NOT count: Military appointments and promotions in the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, Space Force or Coast Guard Foreign Service lists (appointments and promotions in the Foreign Service), and Public Health Service and NOAA Commissioned Corps appointments and promotions
Settlement sources: United States Senate; Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗