Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election?

(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Itamar Ben-Gvir; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Itamar Ben-Gvir formally takes office as Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of National Security in the government formed after the 2026 Israeli legislative election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. An incumbent reappointed to the post counts; later reshuffles, rotations and appointments do not. Nominations, coalition agreements and announcements do not count, nor do acting, caretaker or interim service or a head of government holding the portfolio only by default while it is unassigned. If the ministry is renamed or restructured, such as back to the Ministry of Public Security, the minister of a successor ministry with substantially the same responsibilities counts. If no government is formed after the election before Oct 27, 2027, including because a new election is called first, every market resolves No.