The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- Before Jan 21, 2029 33% −10
- Before 2027 3.9% −1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$145K
Favourite, 7 days−6 pts
Before Jan 21, 2029, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 39% · Sep 29: 39% · Sep 30: 39% · Oct 1: 37% · Oct 2: 38% · Oct 3: 38% · Oct 4: 32% · Oct 5: 33%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 21, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If a Congressional stock trading ban becomes law between Issuance and January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. A Congressional stock trading ban can still allow members of Congress to place their stocks in a blind trust or to invest in "diversified assets" (e.g. ETFs) and still resolve to Yes. Please refer to the full rules for examples.
Settlement sources: Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗