The odds
as of Oct 9, 22:25 UTC- Yariv Levin 19% −32
- Orit Farkash-Hacohen 8% —
- Efrat Rayten 5% —
- Chili Tropper 4.5% —
- Gilad Kariv 4.5% —
- Amir Ohana 3.5% —
- Gideon Sa'ar 3.5% —
- Simcha Rothman 3.5% —
Traded today$27K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days−32 pts
Yariv Levin, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceThe same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 9, 22:25 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Yariv Levin; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Yariv Levin formally takes office as Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of Justice in the government formed after the 2026 Israeli legislative election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. An incumbent reappointed to the post counts; later reshuffles, rotations and appointments do not. Nominations, coalition agreements and announcements do not count, nor do acting, caretaker or interim service or a head of government holding the portfolio only by default while it is unassigned. If no government is formed after the election before Oct 27, 2027, including because a new election is called first, every market resolves No.
Settlement sources: the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; the New York Times; The Washington Post; ABC News Australia; Al Jazeera; Deutsche Welle; CNBC; BBC; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MS Now; NBC; The Wall Street Journal
See it on Kalshi ↗