The odds
as of Nov 4, 15:18 UTC- November 4 28% +12
- November 7 18% +3
- November 5 16% −1
- November 6 16% —
- November 8 16% —
- November 3 7.5% −2
- November 2 2.5% −2
Traded today$8K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+13 pts
November 4, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 15% · Oct 31: 16% · Nov 1: 16% · Nov 2: 16% · Nov 3: 16% · Nov 4: 22%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, November 4; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Nov 4, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗