Moving
When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+? Before Dec 31, 2026 88% ▲+68USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...? November 15 13% ▼−67Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 73% ▲+58Sunderland AFC vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb GNK Dinamo Zagreb 71% ▲+56NJ-02 House election: Jeff Van Drew vote percent At least 46% 51% ▼−48AZ vs. Juventus FC - Exact Score AZ 4 - 4 Juventus FC 50% ▲+47Celtic FC vs. Beşiktaş JK - Exact Score Celtic FC 4 - 4 Beşiktaş JK 50% ▲+47Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin? Talarico by 5-10 93% ▲+45AZ vs. Juventus FC Juventus FC 92% ▲+45Alkmaar vs Juventus Juventus 92% ▲+44Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? Before Jan 1, 2027 74% ▲+42Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? Before Jan 1, 2028 29% ▼−41Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...? October 31 43% ▲+40Garcia vs Sheldon Max Sheldon 95% ▲+40
KalshiCloses December 1, 2026

Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil?

Before Jul 1, 2027 leads at 16% (about 2 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Nov 5, 21:14 UTC. It's up 0.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Before Jul 1, 2027 16% ▲ 0.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 5, 21:14 UTC
  • Before Jul 1, 2027 16% +0.5
  • Before Apr 1, 2027 10% —
  • Before Feb 1, 2027 6% −4
  • Before Jan 1, 2027 5% —
  • Before Dec 1, 2026 1% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$28K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days−35 pts

Before Jul 1, 2027, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Nov 3Nov 516%

Nov 3: 13% · Nov 4: 16% · Nov 5: 16%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jul 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If, after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, Flávio Bolsonaro visits Brazil by physically travelling to and being present within its geographic boundaries, then the market resolves to Yes. The following do NOT constitute a visit: Flying over the area without landing Layovers during which the person remains in an airplane Virtual or remote appearances Presence in international waters adjacent to the area Presence solely within embassy or consulate grounds Plans, announcements, or scheduling of future visits that do not occur during the applicable time period For the avoidance of doubt, a visit occurs only when the person exits an aircraft, vehicle, vessel, or train within the area, or otherwise physically enters the area not aboard one. Remaining aboard, including during flyovers, drive-throughs, and non-exit refueling stops, does not constitute a visit. Exiting within the area constitutes a visit regardless of duration or method of exit.

Settlement sources: official government sources of Brazil; official social media accounts of Flávio Bolsonaro or their official representatives; local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Brazil; the Associated Press; Reuters; The New York Times; The Washington Post; Bloomberg News; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; BBC; The Guardian; Politico; Axios

See it on Kalshi ↗

Politics & elections

More markets like this

All →