The odds
as of Nov 5, 21:14 UTC- Before Jul 1, 2027 16% +0.5
- Before Apr 1, 2027 10% —
- Before Feb 1, 2027 6% −4
- Before Jan 1, 2027 5% —
- Before Dec 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$28K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days−35 pts
Before Jul 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 3: 13% · Nov 4: 16% · Nov 5: 16%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jul 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If, after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, Flávio Bolsonaro visits Brazil by physically travelling to and being present within its geographic boundaries, then the market resolves to Yes. The following do NOT constitute a visit: Flying over the area without landing Layovers during which the person remains in an airplane Virtual or remote appearances Presence in international waters adjacent to the area Presence solely within embassy or consulate grounds Plans, announcements, or scheduling of future visits that do not occur during the applicable time period For the avoidance of doubt, a visit occurs only when the person exits an aircraft, vehicle, vessel, or train within the area, or otherwise physically enters the area not aboard one. Remaining aboard, including during flyovers, drive-throughs, and non-exit refueling stops, does not constitute a visit. Exiting within the area constitutes a visit regardless of duration or method of exit.
Settlement sources: official government sources of Brazil; official social media accounts of Flávio Bolsonaro or their official representatives; local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Brazil; the Associated Press; Reuters; The New York Times; The Washington Post; Bloomberg News; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; BBC; The Guardian; Politico; Axios
See it on Kalshi ↗