Moving
Frites Esports Club vs. Movistar KOI Fénix Frites Esports Club 6% ▼−870 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? Yes 97% ▲+67The Social Reckoning · Rotten Tomatoes score Above 55 42% ▼−47María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? October 31 58% ▲+43Maestrelli vs Tarvet Francesco Maestrelli 64% ▲+39Soke vs Pushkareva Duru Soke 88% ▲+39Aurora Gaming vs. FURIA Aurora Gaming 82% ▲+37Bergqvist Larsson vs Rhoden Bella Bergqvist Larsson 86% ▲+37Henning vs Kasnikowski Philip Henning 78% ▲+34De Dios vs Macias Elizalde Felipe De Dios 82% ▲+34Tofas SK Bursa vs JL Bourg Basket Tofas SK Bursa 66% ▲+33Holmgren vs Martinez August Holmgren 81% ▲+30Preston vs DeFalco Janae Preston 97% ▲+30Contender Series: Everett vs Martin Salhahuddin Everett 55% ▼−28
KalshiCloses January 1, 2027

Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?

Bill Gates leads at 57% (about 6 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 6, 18:30 UTC. It's up 20 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 6, 18:30 UTC
  • Bill Gates 57% +20
  • Barack Obama 49% +10
  • Bill Clinton 45% —
  • Donald Trump 43% −4
  • Prince Andrew 41% —
  • Naomi Campbell 41% +11
  • Hillary Clinton 36% —
  • Woody Allen 36% +1

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$1K
Traded in all$132K
Favourite, 7 days+26 pts

Bill Gates, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Sep 29Oct 657%

Sep 29: 32% · Sep 30: 32% · Oct 1: 53% · Oct 2: 53% · Oct 3: 28% · Oct 4: 31% · Oct 5: 56% · Oct 6: 57%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Bill Gates; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Bill Gates is named in any context in any documents held by the federal government directly regarding Jeffrey Epstein released before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Bill Gates is considered to appear in the documents when either the exact term, phrase, or name specified appears in the content of the documents, or is present by way of commonly used abbreviation, direct synonym, or unmistakable reference including in any official appendices, footnotes, or tables. The documents must be publicly released after Issuance and before the expiration date. If a document is publicly released for the first time after Issuance, it is considered novel in its entirety. For example, a newly released email containing a previously published news article as an attachment counts. However, documents that were already fully public do not count. Documents directly issued and officially published by the relevant institution or entity count, leaks of the documents count, and media coverage by Source Agencies count, unless otherwise specified by the Exchange. If the documents are revised after publication, all publicly released versions prior to Expiration will be used. If a correction or update nullifies the appearance of Bill Gates, the market may still resolve to Yes based on original reporting. The release time of the documents is noted to be when the documents are made available to the public either directly or through third-party media reports. If the documents are heavily redacted, only visible, legible, and unambiguous references count. "Documents" may include, but is not limited to: specific documents or sets of documents, conversations, meetings, or communications, draft documents, proposals, or internal deliberations, court filings, depositions, orders, and exhibits; officially unsealed records from prior sealed proceedings

Settlement sources: The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; NBC; The Source Agencies are; in hierarchical order; documents; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor

See it on Kalshi ↗

Politics & elections

More markets like this

All →