The odds
as of Nov 6, 09:19 UTC- Sam Altman 21% +1
- Mark Zuckerberg 15% —
- Shou Zi Chew 11% −3
- James Donaldson 6.5% —
- Jelly Roll 6.1% —
- Jerome Powell 6% —
- Kamala Harris 6% —
- Anthony Fauci 4.7% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$83K
Favourite, 7 days+4.5 pts
Sam Altman, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 17% · Oct 31: 17% · Nov 1: 16% · Nov 2: 17% · Nov 3: 17% · Nov 4: 17% · Nov 5: 18% · Nov 6: 19%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Sam Altman; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Sam Altman has testified in front of Congress after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes. In-person, remote, and/or virtual testimony during an official hearing or deposition of the House or Senate (including committees, subcommittees, and joint committees) qualifies. Testifying in a closed-door session also qualifies. Submitting written testimony without appearing live does not qualify. Statements made outside of an official committee hearing, such as informal briefings, media events on Capitol grounds, or personal statements to individual members of Congress, do not satisfy the criterion. Clarification (2/6/26): A person will be considered to have “testified in front of Congress” if they provide live testimony in an official House or Senate committee proceeding, including a committee deposition, whether held in a public hearing or a closed-door session, so long as the person appears live (in-person or remotely) and provides testimony under committee authority.
Settlement sources: C-SPAN; the New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; POLITICO; Axios
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