The odds
as of Nov 12, 16:19 UTC- Hike 25bps 81% −5
- Maintain current rate 12% −2
- Hike more than 25bps 4.5% +2
- Cut more than 25bps 2% —
- Cut 25bps 2% —
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$31K
Favourite, 7 days−7 pts
Hike 25bps, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 5: 88% · Nov 6: 74% · Nov 7: 72% · Nov 8: 72% · Nov 9: 78% · Nov 10: 86% · Nov 11: 85% · Nov 12: 81%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Hike 25bps; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike 25bps at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Settlement sources: Trading Economics
See it on Kalshi ↗