The odds
as of Oct 22, 14:25 UTC- Peter Thiel 56% +0.5
- Larry Page 39% +7
- Marc Andreessen 12% —
- Palmer Luckey 12% —
- Mark Zuckerberg 10% −31
- Chamath Palihapitiya 10% —
- Jensen Huang 4.1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+2.5 pts
Peter Thiel, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 15: 54% · Oct 16: 54% · Oct 17: 57% · Oct 18: 56% · Oct 19: 57% · Oct 20: 57% · Oct 21: 56% · Oct 22: 55%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Peter Thiel; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Peter Thiel announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.
Settlement sources: official representatives or spokespersons for person; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; CNBC; verified social media accounts belonging to person
See it on Kalshi ↗