The odds
as of Oct 13, 15:28 UTC- December 31 87% +2.5
- October 31 44% +26
- October 15 <1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−3.5 pts
December 31, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 6: 82% · Oct 7: 89% · Oct 8: 78% · Oct 9: 84% · Oct 10: 85% · Oct 11: 85% · Oct 12: 88% · Oct 13: 87%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
See it on Polymarket ↗