The odds
as of Oct 5, 19:24 UTC- Markwayne Mullin 39% +2
- Kristi Noem 32% —
- Dan Scavino 30% —
- Pete Hegseth 26% +1.5
- David Sacks 22% +9.8
- Kash Patel 19% —
- Tom Homan 19% —
- Susie Wiles 18% +3
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$1.4M
Favourite, 7 days+3.5 pts
Markwayne Mullin, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 34% · Sep 29: 34% · Sep 30: 37% · Oct 1: 37% · Oct 2: 38% · Oct 3: 37% · Oct 4: 34% · Oct 5: 38%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗