Moving
Baycurrent Classic: Top 20 Finishers Jacob Bridgeman 95% ▲+44Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta: Set 1 Winner Pablo Carreno Busta 89% ▲+42NLCS MVP Winner William Contreras 43% ▲+40Critics Choice Awards: Best Foreign Language Film La Bola Negra 12% ▼−40ALCS MVP Winner Miguel Vargas 45% ▲+40Steam: Weekly Top Seller STAR WARS: Galactic Racer™ 35% ▼−38Charlton vs Ryan Ziegann Sam Ryan Ziegann 71% ▲+38Hoole vs Sach Casey Hoole 92% ▲+35RED Canids vs. FlyQuest FlyQuest 84% ▲+34Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI… October 31 62% ▲+28Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31? Elon Musk 93% ▲+28OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11 Above 166 T tokens 42% ▲+27Nobel Prize in Literature: 2026 Can Xue 16% ▼−23Meta's Watermelon released on...? No release by October 31 46% ▲+23
PolymarketCloses October 31, 2026

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Elon Musk leads at 93% (about 9 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 8, 07:34 UTC. It's up 28 points in the last 24 hours.

Elon Musk 93% ▲ 28 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 8, 07:34 UTC
  • Elon Musk 93% +28
  • Flávio Bolsonaro 77% −8.5
  • Benjamin Netanyahu 67% +25
  • Zohran Mamdani 61% +5.5
  • Mark Rutte 60% +36
  • Kim Jong Un 59% —
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy 58% +7
  • Dario Amodei 57% +17

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$12K
Traded in all$40K
Favourite, 7 days+67 pts

Elon Musk, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 1Oct 893%

Oct 1: 91% · Oct 2: 69% · Oct 3: 69% · Oct 4: 40% · Oct 5: 61% · Oct 6: 65% · Oct 7: 92% · Oct 8: 93%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain praising language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Praising language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as praise, or endorses praising language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as praise if it expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the individual either personally or professionally. This includes direct praise, attributing a positive personal or professional trait to the individual (e.g., strong, smart, loyal, a winner), or equivalent positive descriptions. General neutrality or polite diplomatic language will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
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