The odds
as of Oct 8, 03:32 UTC- Can Xue 17% −3
- Anne Carson 16% +1
- Gerald Murnane 14% +4
- Salman Rushdie 11% +1
- Cristina Rivera Garza 11% —
- César Aira 11% +6
- Alexis Wright 11% −6
- Amitav Ghosh 9.5% −1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$12K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+4 pts
Can Xue, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 13% · Oct 2: 14% · Oct 3: 14% · Oct 4: 16% · Oct 5: 18% · Oct 6: 55% · Oct 7: 16% · Oct 8: 17%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Can Xue; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Can Xue has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Nobel Foundation
See it on Kalshi ↗