Moving
Baycurrent Classic: Top 20 Finishers Jacob Bridgeman 95% ▲+44Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta: Set 1 Winner Pablo Carreno Busta 89% ▲+42NLCS MVP Winner William Contreras 43% ▲+40Critics Choice Awards: Best Foreign Language Film La Bola Negra 12% ▼−40ALCS MVP Winner Miguel Vargas 45% ▲+40Steam: Weekly Top Seller STAR WARS: Galactic Racer™ 35% ▼−38Charlton vs Ryan Ziegann Sam Ryan Ziegann 71% ▲+38Hoole vs Sach Casey Hoole 92% ▲+35RED Canids vs. FlyQuest FlyQuest 84% ▲+34Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI… October 31 62% ▲+28Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31? Elon Musk 93% ▲+28OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11 Above 166 T tokens 42% ▲+27Nobel Prize in Literature: 2026 Can Xue 16% ▼−23Pro Baseball Championship: Winning division AL East 58% ▲+21
KalshiCloses October 20, 2026

Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta: Set 1 Winner

Pablo Carreno Busta leads at 89% (about 9 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 8, 08:37 UTC. It's up 42 points in the last 24 hours.

Pablo Carreno Busta 89% ▲ 42 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 8, 08:37 UTC
  • Pablo Carreno Busta 89% +42
  • Mariano Navone 44% —
Traded today$93K
Traded in all$93K
Favourite, 7 days+40 pts

Pablo Carreno Busta, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 5Oct 863%

Oct 5: 50% · Oct 6: 47% · Oct 7: 45% · Oct 8: 63%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Pablo Carreno Busta; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Pablo Carreno Busta wins set 1 in the Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). If a retirement occurs, all markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed will resolve accordingly. Any markets that cannot be unconditionally settled will resolve to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources: ATP

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