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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2028

Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?

Pete Hegseth leads at 30% (about 3 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Nov 5, 03:19 UTC. It's down 2 points in the last 24 hours.

Pete Hegseth 30% ▼ 2 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 5, 03:19 UTC
  • Pete Hegseth 30% −2
  • Donald Trump 27% +13
  • Nobody 23% −11
  • Todd Blanche 8% +7.6
  • Howard Lutnick 4.5% —
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 3.7% +0.8
  • Clarence Thomas 2.1% —
  • Samuel Alito <1% −1
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days−14 pts

Pete Hegseth, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 28Nov 532%

Oct 29: 45% · Oct 30: 45% · Oct 31: 45% · Nov 1: 49% · Nov 2: 49% · Nov 3: 28% · Nov 4: 26% · Nov 5: 32%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered. In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual, among those with articles of impeachment passed against them, whose last name is first in alphabetical order. In the event that none of the listed individuals is impeached by the United States House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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