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Steam: Weekly Top Seller AION 2 11% ▼−54Gyeongnam vs Chungnam Asan Tie 84% ▲+52Kukasian vs Faucon Romain Faucon 94% ▲+51Seifert vs Fellin Stefan Seifert 80% ▲+46Geerlings Martinez vs Curmi Ariana Geerlings Martinez 93% ▲+44Juhas vs Mashtakov Kristijan Juhas 74% ▲+42"expectations" by Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan ·… Rank 1 to 2 26% ▼−40Ulsan HD vs Bucheon Ulsan HD 93% ▲+34Ulsan HD FC vs. Bucheon FC 1995 Ulsan HD FC 91% ▲+32Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: S… Alexander Zverev 97% ▲+26VALORANT Champions Shanghai Champion Team Vitality 15% ▼−26100 Thieves vs. Team Vitality 100 Thieves 65% ▼−23DP World India Championship Winner Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra 34% ▲+22Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut? 1510+ 64% ▼−22
PolymarketCloses July 1, 2027

Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?

A ladder on one number: the likeliest rung is 1500+ at 93% on Polymarket, as of Oct 17, 09:22 UTC. It's down 3.5 points in the last 24 hours.

1500+ 93% ▼ 3.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 17, 09:22 UTC
  • 1500+ 93% −3.5
  • 1510+ 64% −22
  • 1520+ 52% −12
  • 1530+ 30% —
  • 1540+ 19% —

A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$9K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+3.5 pts

1500+, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 9Oct 1792%

Oct 10: 88% · Oct 11: 86% · Oct 12: 88% · Oct 13: 89% · Oct 14: 90% · Oct 15: 90% · Oct 16: 96% · Oct 17: 92%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Settlement sources: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

See it on Polymarket ↗

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