The odds
as of Nov 2, 04:19 UTC- October 31, 2026 94% +92
- November 30 27% −4.5
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$20K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+90 pts
October 31, 2026, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 26: 2.9% · Oct 27: 14% · Oct 28: 3.1% · Oct 29: 12% · Oct 30: 6% · Oct 31: 1.6% · Nov 1: 32% · Nov 2: 94%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with China. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by China or Chinese citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with China will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against China will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on China within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗