The odds
as of Oct 12, 09:42 UTC- Above 160 million board feet 96% —
- Above 180 million board feet 82% —
- Above 200 million board feet 42% —
- Above 220 million board feet 30% —
- Above 240 million board feet 4.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$781
Traded in all$41K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 160 million board feet, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 5: 96% · Oct 6: 96% · Oct 7: 96% · Oct 8: 96% · Oct 9: 96% · Oct 10: 96% · Oct 11: 96% · Oct 12: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 160 million board feet; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Oregon Department of Forestry reports that timber volume harvested from Board of Forestry Lands in fiscal year 2027 is above 160 million board feet, then the market resolves to Yes. Fiscal year 2027 runs from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027. Resolution will use ODF’s reported BOF Timber Harvest Volume for FY2027. Only timber actually harvested from Board of Forestry Lands will count; timber merely planned, offered, or sold but not harvested during FY2027 will not count. Volume is measured in million board feet (MMBF).
Settlement sources: Oregon Department of Forestry
See it on Kalshi ↗