The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Above 91,500 MW 3.5% —
- Above 92,000 MW 3.5% —
- Above 92,500 MW 3.5% —
- Above 93,000 MW 2.5% —
- Above 94,000 MW 2.5% —
- Above 96,000 MW 2.5% —
- Above 98,000 MW 1.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$703
Traded in all$575K
Favourite, 7 days−1 pts
Above 91,500 MW, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 4.5% · Sep 29: 4.5% · Sep 30: 3.5% · Oct 1: 3.5% · Oct 2: 3.5% · Oct 3: 3.5% · Oct 4: 3.5% · Oct 5: 3.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 91,500 MW; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 91,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use ERCOT’s integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered. ERCOT’s preliminary peak-demand figures may change during the settlement process. Resolution will use the applicable official settled peak-demand value published by ERCOT.
Settlement sources: Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)
See it on Kalshi ↗