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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

The market puts it at 5% — a long shot, about one in 20 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 19:24 UTC. It's up 0.5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 19:24 UTC
  • Chance of yes 5% +0.5
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$198K
Yes, 7 days−5.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 55%

Sep 28: 11% · Sep 29: 11% · Sep 30: 4.5% · Oct 1: 4.5% · Oct 2: 4.5% · Oct 3: 4.5% · Oct 4: 4.5% · Oct 5: 5%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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