The odds
as of Nov 5, 01:18 UTC- Chance of yes 3.4% —
Traded today$515
Traded in all$664K
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 29: 2.9% · Oct 30: 1.7% · Oct 31: 2.9% · Nov 1: 2.5% · Nov 2: 2.9% · Nov 3: 3.8% · Nov 4: 3.7% · Nov 5: 3.4%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
See it on Polymarket ↗