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Mistral Large 4: Text Arena Debut? 1430+ 5.5% ▼−77Skliar vs Turini Polina Skliar 96% ▲+60Lokoli vs Ivanov Ivan Ivanov 94% ▲+58Pinnington Jones vs Gojo Jack Pinnington Jones 97% ▲+51Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz: Set 2 Winner Hubert Hurkacz 90% ▲+49Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by … Kazem Gharibabadi 66% ▲+46OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11 Above 164 T tokens 85% ▲+45Aksu vs Crawley Ayla Aksu 77% ▲+44Du Pree vs Martinez Vaquero Maria Martinez Vaquero 61% ▲+43Kashiwa vs Kobe Kashiwa 89% ▲+42Baycurrent Classic End of Round 2 Leader Keith Mitchell 50% ▲+41Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Fery: Exact Match Score Karen Khachanov wins 2-1 64% ▲+40Baycurrent Classic: Top 10 Finishers Keith Mitchell 73% ▲+40Bank of Mexico Decision in November? No change 56% ▼−40
KalshiCloses November 3, 2027

Florida Governor margin of victory

Donalds, 3+ pts leads at 60% (about 6 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 9, 11:24 UTC. It's down 1 points in the last 24 hours.

Donalds, 3+ pts 60% ▼ 1 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 9, 11:24 UTC
  • Donalds, 3+ pts 60% −1
  • Donalds, 6+ pts 39% +1
  • Donalds, 9+ pts 22% −3
  • Donalds, 12+ pts 11% —
  • Donalds, 18+ pts 8.2% —
  • Donalds, 15+ pts 3.6% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$2K
Traded in all$34K
Favourite, 7 days−1 pts

Donalds, 3+ pts, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 1Oct 960%

Oct 2: 60% · Oct 3: 59% · Oct 4: 58% · Oct 5: 60% · Oct 6: 61% · Oct 7: 61% · Oct 8: 57% · Oct 9: 60%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Donalds, 3+ pts; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Florida by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

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