The odds
as of Nov 9, 05:18 UTC- Chance of yes 1.3% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$30K
Yes, 7 days−1.3 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceNov 2: 1.9% · Nov 3: 1.9% · Nov 4: 2.2% · Nov 5: 2.2% · Nov 6: 1.8% · Nov 7: 1.8% · Nov 8: 2% · Nov 9: 1.3%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗