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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Obama arrested before 2027?

The market puts it at 1.3% — a very long shot — on Polymarket, as of Nov 9, 05:18 UTC.

Yes 1.3%

The odds

as of Nov 9, 05:18 UTC
  • Chance of yes 1.3% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$30K
Yes, 7 days−1.3 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Nov 1Nov 91%

Nov 2: 1.9% · Nov 3: 1.9% · Nov 4: 2.2% · Nov 5: 2.2% · Nov 6: 1.8% · Nov 7: 1.8% · Nov 8: 2% · Nov 9: 1.3%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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