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PolymarketCloses June 30, 2027

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

Yashar leads at 57% (about 6 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC. It's up 0.5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC
  • Yashar 57% +0.5
  • Yisrael Beiteinu 54% −0.5
  • Together 48% −7
  • The Democrats 44% −17
  • Likud 42% −0.5
  • United Torah Judaism 42% +2.5
  • Shas 41% +1.5
  • Otzma Yehudit 38% +2.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$3K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days−5.5 pts

Yashar, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 557%

Sep 28: 61% · Sep 29: 60% · Sep 30: 65% · Oct 1: 55% · Oct 2: 55% · Oct 3: 59% · Oct 4: 57% · Oct 5: 57%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.

Settlement sources: https://main.knesset.gov.il

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