The odds
as of Oct 27, 07:31 UTC- Chance of yes 3% —
Traded today$672
Traded in all$165K
Yes, 7 days−1.4 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 20: 4.1% · Oct 21: 3.2% · Oct 22: 3.1% · Oct 23: 3.1% · Oct 24: 3.1% · Oct 25: 3.1% · Oct 26: 3.1% · Oct 27: 3.1%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗