The odds
as of Oct 25, 23:20 UTC- Above 300,000 jobs 95% +22
- Above 350,000 jobs 3% −85
- Above 400,000 jobs 82% +4
- Above 450,000 jobs 55% −18
- Above 500,000 jobs 58% +36
- Above 550,000 jobs 74% —
- Above 600,000 jobs 38% +24
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$8K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+45 pts
Above 300,000 jobs, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 18: 50% · Oct 19: 51% · Oct 20: 53% · Oct 21: 51% · Oct 22: 51% · Oct 23: 55% · Oct 24: 54% · Oct 25: 51%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 300,000 jobs; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 300,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All employees, retail trade” series (CEU4200000001). The expiration value is the first published December 2026 level, converted from thousands to individual jobs, minus the fixed September baseline of 15,378,400 jobs. The initial December estimate is used even if labeled preliminary. Later corrections, revisions, and benchmark updates to either month are ignored. No additional rounding applies. The measure includes seasonal and nonseasonal jobs and reflects net employment growth, not gross hires or announced hiring plans.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; FRED
See it on Kalshi ↗