The odds
as of Oct 27, 07:31 UTC- Chance of yes 4.5% —
Traded today$527
Traded in all$2.7M
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 20: 4.5% · Oct 21: 4.5% · Oct 22: 4.5% · Oct 23: 4.5% · Oct 24: 4.5% · Oct 25: 4.5% · Oct 26: 4.5% · Oct 27: 4.5%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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