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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Netanyahu arrested by…?

The market puts it at 2.9% — a very long shot — on Polymarket, as of Nov 5, 06:26 UTC. It's down 1.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 2.9% ▼ 1.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 5, 06:26 UTC
  • Chance of yes 2.9% −1.5
Traded today$965
Traded in all$33K
Yes, 7 days−1.3 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 28Nov 53%

Oct 29: 5.6% · Oct 30: 5.5% · Oct 31: 5% · Nov 1: 4.8% · Nov 2: 4.4% · Nov 3: 4.2% · Nov 4: 4.5% · Nov 5: 2.9%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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