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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

December 31 leads at 27% (about 3 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 17, 05:22 UTC. It's up 11 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31 27% ▲ 11 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 17, 05:22 UTC
  • December 31 27% +11
  • October 31 7% +0.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$3K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−17 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 12Oct 1727%

Oct 12: 20% · Oct 13: 17% · Oct 14: 15% · Oct 15: 16% · Oct 16: 27% · Oct 17: 27%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Omar is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) she is criminally booked or processed; (ii) she is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) she is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) she is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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