The odds
as of Oct 7, 23:22 UTC- Export-control chip security 23% −4.5
- Film/TV production expensing 18% +3
- Critical-minerals stockpile 15% +1
- AI-chip export licensing 14% −16
- Credit-card routing competition 12% −15
- Data center utility cost protection 11% −2.5
- Smithsonian Women’s History Museum 11% −0.7
- FISA Section 702 reauthorization 11% −3
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$175K
Favourite, 7 days−2.5 pts
Export-control chip security, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 30: 26% · Oct 1: 26% · Oct 2: 26% · Oct 3: 26% · Oct 4: 31% · Oct 5: 31% · Oct 6: 28% · Oct 7: 23%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if X is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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