The odds
as of Oct 25, 23:20 UTC- Chance of yes 6.5% +1
Traded today$645
Traded in all$309K
Yes, 7 days+1 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 18: 5.5% · Oct 19: 5.5% · Oct 20: 5% · Oct 21: 5% · Oct 22: 5.5% · Oct 23: 5.5% · Oct 24: 5.5% · Oct 25: 6.5%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗