The odds
as of Oct 25, 21:20 UTC- Above 31.0% 96% +1.5
- Above 31.5% 95% —
- Above 32.0% 74% —
- Above 32.5% 60% +5
- Above 33.0% 80% +45
- Above 33.5% 68% +52
- Above 34.0% 38% +18
- Above 34.5% 23% +22
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$12K
Traded in all$33K
Favourite, 7 days+0.5 pts
Above 31.0%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 19: 96% · Oct 21: 96% · Oct 22: 87% · Oct 23: 96% · Oct 24: 60% · Oct 25: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 31.0%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the South Africa unemployment rate is above 31.0% for Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Trading Economics
See it on Kalshi ↗