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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31 leads at 87% (about 9 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC. It's up 1 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC
  • December 31 87% +1
  • October 31 63% —
  • October 15 24% −3

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$6K
Traded in all$421K
Favourite, 7 days−2.5 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 587%

Sep 28: 86% · Sep 29: 89% · Sep 30: 88% · Oct 1: 86% · Oct 2: 90% · Oct 3: 86% · Oct 4: 87% · Oct 5: 87%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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