The odds
as of Oct 24, 19:17 UTC- Ilija Srdanović 89% +70
- Aleksandar Vučić 71% +5
- Ana Brnabić 1% —
- Miloš Vučević 1% —
- Stefan Krkobabić 1% —
- Ivica Dačić 1% —
- Dragan Đilas 1% —
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+70 pts
Ilija Srdanović, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 17: 20% · Oct 18: 20% · Oct 19: 20% · Oct 20: 20% · Oct 21: 27% · Oct 22: 17% · Oct 23: 19% · Oct 24: 24%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Ilija Srdanović; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Ilija Srdanović becomes Prime Minister of Serbia as a result of government formation following the next Serbian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Dec 31, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
Settlement sources: National Assembly
See it on Kalshi ↗