The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- Chance of yes 2.5% —
Traded today$126K
Traded in all$43.6M
Yes, 7 days−1 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 3.5% · Sep 29: 3.3% · Sep 30: 3.2% · Oct 1: 3% · Oct 2: 2.6% · Oct 3: 2.5% · Oct 4: 2.4% · Oct 5: 2.5%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗