The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- Democratic sweep 29% −1
- Republican sweep 18% +11
- Texas, Alaska, Ohio 17% —
- Texas, Alaska 11% −2
- Ohio 5.4% —
- Alaska, Ohio 5.4% —
- Alaska 5.2% +4
- Texas, Ohio 5% —
Traded today$938
Traded in all$42K
Favourite, 7 days−1 pts
Democratic sweep, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 30% · Sep 29: 34% · Sep 30: 35% · Oct 1: 35% · Oct 2: 32% · Oct 3: 30% · Oct 4: 25% · Oct 5: 29%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Democratic sweep; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the winning party for the Class II Senate seat of Texas is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Alaska is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Iowa is the Democratic Party, AND the Class III Senate seat of Ohio is the Democratic Party for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the party of the candidate first sworn into each seat for the new term, or via accelerated resolution if 4 of the 8 Designated Media Sources project the winners for all four seats. This market is mutually exclusive and only one strike may resolve to Yes.
Settlement sources: state governments
See it on Kalshi ↗