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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Government shutdown by...?

December 31 leads at 32% (about 3 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Nov 6, 01:19 UTC. It's down 9 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31 32% ▼ 9 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 6, 01:19 UTC
  • December 31 32% −9
  • December 12 27% −7.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$7K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−12 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 29Nov 632%

Oct 30: 46% · Oct 31: 44% · Nov 1: 44% · Nov 2: 44% · Nov 3: 36% · Nov 4: 41% · Nov 5: 32% · Nov 6: 32%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees. A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown. Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown. The following will qualify as a shutdown: - An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time - An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency") The following will not qualify as a shutdown: - A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations - Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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