The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- December 31, 2026 8.5% —
- November 30, 2026 4.3% —
- October 31, 2026 1.7% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$8K
Traded in all$2.8M
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
December 31, 2026, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 11% · Sep 29: 11% · Sep 30: 9.5% · Oct 1: 8.5% · Oct 2: 8.5% · Oct 3: 8.5% · Oct 4: 7.5% · Oct 5: 8.5%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
See it on Polymarket ↗