The odds
as of Oct 28, 05:19 UTC- March 31, 2027 20% —
- December 31, 2026 16% —
- November 30, 2026 9.5% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$30K
Traded in all$30K
Favourite, 7 days−8.5 pts
March 31, 2027, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 27: 20% · Oct 28: 20%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗