The odds
as of Oct 27, 22:16 UTC- Together 94% +7
- Yisrael Beiteinu 6% —
- Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad) 5% +3
- United Torah Judaism 5% —
- Likud 3% —
- People of Israel 2% —
- A Place for All of Us 1% —
- Blue and White 1% —
Traded today$22K
Traded in all$34K
Favourite, 7 days+16 pts
Together, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 20: 79% · Oct 21: 80% · Oct 22: 86% · Oct 23: 84% · Oct 24: 85% · Oct 25: 82% · Oct 26: 83% · Oct 27: 95%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Together; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Together finishes in 3rd place in the 2026 Israeli Knesset election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order. Rank is based on Knesset seats, not national vote share, using the Central Elections Committee's final certified result rather than preliminary counts. A party or list awarded no seats cannot place 3rd. Lists with equal seat totals share the places they jointly occupy. For example, if two lists tie for the 2nd-most seats, both are tied for 2nd and 3rd place; if two lists tie for the most seats, the list with the next-most seats finishes 3rd. Joint candidate lists count as single entities. Their seats are not credited separately to constituent parties. A newly formed joint list is a separate entity; a name change alone does not change a party or list's identity. Seats of separate lists are not combined for surplus-vote agreements or post-election coalitions. If no listed party or list finishes or ties for 3rd place, every market on this event resolves NO. In case of an exact tie for 3rd place among multiple parties as certified by the election authority, the markets shall resolve to $1/(number of tied entities) rounded down. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.
Settlement sources: Central Elections Committee
See it on Kalshi ↗