The odds
as of Nov 9, 04:20 UTC- Before 2030 21% —
- Before 2029 20% −1
- Before 2028 7.7% —
- Before 2027 2.4% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$517
Traded in all$58K
Favourite, 7 days−1 pts
Before 2030, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 1: 22% · Nov 2: 21% · Nov 3: 23% · Nov 4: 22% · Nov 5: 21% · Nov 6: 21% · Nov 8: 21%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2030; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Xi Jinping has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Physical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.
Settlement sources: The Guardian; local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Taiwan; Xi Jinping; official government sources of Taiwan; official representatives or offices of Xi Jinping; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; CNBC; Bloomberg News; Axios; ABC; CBS; NBC; BBC
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