The odds
as of Nov 4, 16:17 UTC- At least 1% 4% +1
- At least 2% 2% −2
- At least 3% 2% —
- At least 4% 2% −3
- At least 5% 2% +1
- At least 6% 3% −2
- At least 7% 2.5% +1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$33K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
At least 1%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 3% · Oct 29: 3% · Oct 30: 3% · Oct 31: 3% · Nov 1: 3% · Nov 2: 3% · Nov 3: 3% · Nov 4: 52%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 1%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jacob Gottfredson in the 2026 UT-04 House election is 1% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Jacob Gottfredson ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Settlement sources: Elections Office, Office of the Lieutenant Governor, Salt Lake City, UT
See it on Kalshi ↗