Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?

(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Tina Kotek; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Tina Kotek's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes. A candidate's 2026 vote share is their share of all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office, as certified by that state's official election authority, including votes received on every ballot line on which the candidate appears. Where a race uses ranked-choice tabulation or a runoff, the first-round (first-choice) share is used. Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share is her share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote, including every ballot line on which she appeared, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. Shares are compared unrounded. Offices: Troy Jackson, U.S. Senate (Maine); Tina Kotek, Governor (Oregon); Keisha Lance Bottoms, Governor (Georgia); Kathy Hochul, Governor (New York); Chris Pappas, U.S. Senate (New Hampshire); Abdul El-Sayed, U.S. Senate (Michigan); Angie Nixon, U.S. Senate (Florida); David Jolly, Governor (Florida); Peggy Flanagan, U.S. Senate (Minnesota). A market resolves NO if the listed person is not the Democratic nominee (for Minnesota, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee) on that race's 2026 general-election ballot.