Moving
PolymarketCloses November 1, 2026

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

October 31 leads at 25% (about 3 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC. It's down 11 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC
  • October 31 25% −11
  • September 30 13% +1.4

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$987
Traded in all$897K
Favourite, 7 days−13 pts

October 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 525%

Sep 28: 38% · Sep 29: 28% · Sep 30: 28% · Oct 1: 34% · Oct 2: 36% · Oct 3: 36% · Oct 4: 36% · Oct 5: 25%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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