The odds
as of Nov 6, 13:16 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2030 82% −1
- Before Jan 1, 2029 46% −1
- Before Jul 1, 2028 27% −9
- Before Jan 1, 2028 15% −3
- Before Jan 1, 2027 3.1% +3
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$68K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Before Jan 1, 2030, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 81% · Oct 31: 80% · Nov 1: 81% · Nov 2: 81% · Nov 3: 81% · Nov 4: 82% · Nov 5: 83% · Nov 6: 82%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2030; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the White House State Ballroom is completed and holds an event before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Settlement sources: The New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Wall Street Journal; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; NBC; The Guardian; South China Morning Post; CBC; ABC; BBC; The Washington Post; The Verge; ABC News Australia
See it on Kalshi ↗