Moving
Porras vs Gonzalez-Galino Valentin Gonzalez-Galino 81% ▲+63Trump's approval rating on Oct 16, 2026? Above 38.7 73% ▲+57Maxted vs Kim Lui Maxted 97% ▲+53Prime Gladiators (USA) vs Space City Cowboys Prime Gladiators (USA) 95% ▲+50Colorado permitted housing units in 2026 Above 30,000 95% ▲+49Which coalition will form the next Romanian govern… PSD 73% ▲+46AMBROGI vs Urribarrens Ramirez Iker Urribarrens Ramirez 79% ▲+44Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? October 4 95% ▲+40Will Iran target an Arab country by...? October 15 94% ▲+36Reed vs Bulatova Arina Bulatova 71% ▲+36CPI in December Above 0.1% 51% ▼−35Will Iran target Iraq by...? October 15 95% ▲+34Storck Franca vs Cundom Julian Cundom 68% ▲+34Fear & Greed Index on Oct 16, 2026? Fear 72% ▲+33
KalshiCloses November 3, 2026

Will James Talarico drop out?

The market puts it at 1.5% — a very long shot — on Kalshi, as of Oct 14, 21:21 UTC. It's down 1 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 1.5% ▼ 1 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 14, 21:21 UTC
  • Chance of yes 1.5% −1
Traded today$20K
Traded in all$41K
Yes, 7 days−2.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 11Oct 142%

Oct 11: 3.5% · Oct 12: 1.5% · Oct 13: 1.5% · Oct 14: 1.5%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
If James Talarico drops out of the 2026 Texas Senate race before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. "Dropped out" means any of the following: James Talarico announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign James Talarico files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities James Talarico publicly states they are no longer seeking the office James Talarico endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running James Talarico is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal The following do NOT constitute dropping out: Losing a primary or election Failing to qualify for debates or ballots Temporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing Being eliminated through the normal election process Reducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate Key provisions: Once someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter "Suspending" a campaign is treated as dropping out unless James Talarico explicitly states they remain a candidate For primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party's primary Withdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot

Settlement sources: Fox News; MSNBC; The Wall Street Journal; Semafor; ABC; CBS; The New York Times; The Washington Post; Axios; CNN; Reuters; the Associated Press; Politico

See it on Kalshi ↗

Politics & elections

More markets like this

All →